Reflecting On Our 2024 Predictions - How We Did
When it comes to the business of sports, standing still isn’t an option
Sports media is changing faster than ever, and in 2024, we saw the seeds of transformation bloom. Disruptive Play was at the forefront, mapping out the trends that would define the year. Here’s a look back at what we foresaw, what we got right, and what it means for the future.
(Stay tuned for our 2025 predictions, coming this January!)
DISRUPTIVE PLAY 2024 PREDICTIONS
PREDICTION 1. A New Model in Sports Properties Emerges: The Kings League Effect
PREDICTION: Global Expansion of Emerging and Niche Leagues: The Kings League's success will inspire the creation of alternative sports leagues globally, offering unique rules and fan interactions across traditional sports, e-sports, and innovative hybrid formats. We’re already starting to see it in Germany with the creation of the Baller League.
RESULT - NAILED IT:
Baller League proved model in Germany and raised $25MM to expand its model into the UK and United States. Read more HERE from Disruptive Play from earlier this year when we had the opportunity to spend time with CEO Felix Starck. Watch for copy cats in 2025 and beyond.
PREDICTION: Celebrity and Influencer-Owned Teams: Celebrities and influencers will increasingly own and promote teams, leveraging their massive followings for instant fan bases and heightened media attention.
RESULT - NAILED IT:
E1 Boat Racing taps into high-profile owners that are active participants in the property. Check out Andy Marston profile on E1.
PREDICTION: Traditional Sports Rights Models Upended by New Comers: Alternative leagues will challenge the conventional sports rights model, adopting flexible distribution strategies across streaming platforms, social media, and direct-to-consumer models. This approach will enable broader audience engagement and introduce innovative monetization models.
RESULT - EARLY BUT ON RIGHT PATH:
This year we saw tons of new sports properties announced / launched. Many are still following a traditional media rights path (and that will cost them dearly) but others are beginning to innovate. Creator driven, democratized distribution is making waves and we expect this trend to continue in 2025.
PREDICTION 2. Creator-Led Sports Broadcasting: A New Era
PREDICTION: Dominance of Influencer Networks as Distribution: Influencer-led platforms like Caze TV will become major players in sports broadcasting, from major events like the World Cup and the Olympics to up and coming properties like A7FL and World Chase Tag, attracting younger audiences in unprecedented numbers.
RESULT - NAILED IT (AND MORE OPPORTUNITY AHEAD):
Disruptive Play wrote about this early in the year and we believe we are very early days here.
PREDICTION: Athletes as Creators and Distributors: Top athletes will increasingly use their social media channels to distribute sports content, offering unique insights and perspectives directly to fans. This shift will see athletes not just as commentators but as key content distributors, challenging the traditional sports media distribution model.
RESULT - NAILED IT:
We continued to see Athletes launch Podcasts and their own channels. Most notably was Ronaldo’s Youtube channel launch which was the fastest growing channel ever.
PREDICTION 3. Hyper-Personalization in Sports Media
PREDICTION: Customizable Viewing Experiences: Viewers will have extensive customization options, from selecting specific player cams to receiving personalized stats and analytics.
RESULT - EARLY BUT ON THE RIGHT PATH:
Say what you will about Liv Golf but their App which largely goes under the radar now allows you to watch any player, any shot, any time.
PREDICTION: Personalized AI-Driven Content: Broadcasting platforms will leverage AI for personalized content, including player-specific feeds and real-time strategy predictions, revolutionizing sports consumption. (See Sponixtech immersive replay)
RESULT - EARLY BUT ON THE RIGHT PATH
MLB's Vision Pro app offers an immersive experience with live data and 3D stadium views, making you feel like you're at the ballpark. The app provides unique perspectives like a batter's view or the pitcher's view, enhancing the viewing experience beyond traditional TV broadcasts.
PREDICTION 4. Decentralization and Diversification of Media Rights
PREDICTION: NASCAR's Model: NASCAR's recent media rights deal, while beneficial for the organization, might not be as favorable for audiences. The deal's complexity and spread across multiple platforms could lead to fragmented viewing experiences. NBA Deal Expectations: Similar trends are expected in the upcoming NBA media deal, where a decentralized approach could lead to a more complex landscape for viewers, with games spread across various platforms.
RESULT - NAILED IT BUT CONCERNS AHEAD:
The NBA’s groundbreaking $76 billion deal saw distribution spread across multiple distributors to maximize value for the NBA. But is it maximizing fan value ? This deal hasn’t even gone into effect and viewership for the NBA is down 28% … We’ll cover this in more detail in 2025 but will fans show up for this new distribution footprint?
In another groundbreaking deal, DAZN secured $1 billion global rights to be the exclusive broadcaster of the FIFA club world cup. While bidding for this was apparently lackluster pursuing a traditional region by region approach, we’ll see how DAZN approaches sub-licensing and monetization. In any case, we applaud the ambition!
PREDICTION: Netflix Goes Global - Netflix will use it’s global reach to incubate net new sports IP and potential bid on global rights packages (e.g., NBA in season tournament)
RESULT - NAILED IT BUT PROBABLY WILL BE BIGGER THAN WE THOUGHT:
From NFL and FIFA to unique events (Jake Paul / Mike Tyson), Netflix is definitely going after sport in a major way and we should definitely be on the lookout in 2025 and beyond….
PREDICTION: New Rights Windows Created: As properties challenge the conventional sports rights model, adopting flexible distribution strategies across streaming platforms, social media, and direct-to-consumer models, traditional leagues will pounce and begin to sell a “social rights” window, an “athlete rights” window, and “AI rights” window amongst others.
RESULT - EARLY BUT THIS IS GOING TO BE BIG:
We’ve seen the creator social window (note: Disruptive Play is a partner here)
We’ve gotten a sneak peak at the future of AI rights which allows the recreation of games and players - we expect this to fully come online in 2025 and beyond
The sports industry is at an inflection point, and Disruptive Play is here to lead the way. Thank you for being part of our journey in 2024. Wishing you a happy and healthy New Year!
-Michael